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Report of the Commission on the National Defense Strategy : RAND Corporation , July 29 , 2024

July 29, 2024

RAND Corporation

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From the report: “The threats the United States faces are the most serious and most challenging the nation has encountered since 1945 and include the potential for near-term major war. The United States last fought a global conflict during World War II, which ended nearly 80 years ago. The nation was last prepared for such a fight during the Cold War, which ended 35 years ago. It is not prepared today.

China and Russia are major powers that seek to undermine U.S. influence. The 2022 National Defense Strategy (NDS) recognizes these nations as the top threats to the United States and declares China to be the “pacing challenge,” based on the strength of its military and economy and its intent to exert dominance regionally and globally.

The Commission finds that, in many ways, China is outpacing the United States and has largely negated the U.S. military advantage in the Western Pacific through two decades of focused military investment. Without significant change by the United States, the balance of power will continue to shift in China’s favor. China’s overall annual spending on defense is estimated at as much as $711 billion, and the Chinese government in March 2024 announced an increase in annual defense spending of 7.2 percent.

Russia will devote 29 percent of its federal budget this year on national defense as it continues to reconstitute its military and economy after its failed initial invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Russia possesses considerable strategic, space, and cyber capabilities and under Vladimir Putin seeks a return to its global leadership role of the Cold War.”

Authors - Harman, Jane, Edelman, Eric, Keane, John M., Mahnken, Thomas G., Rudman, Mara, Sixkiller, Mariah, Starzak, Alissa, Zakheim, Roger

Authors

Harman, Jane, Edelman, Eric, Keane, John M., Mahnken, Thomas G., Rudman, Mara, Sixkiller, Mariah, Starzak, Alissa, Zakheim, Roger

Publishers

RAND Corporation

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